Causes for Optimisim

I have not been shy about my criticism of Dom Capers and his defense over the past few years.  Weak pressure on opposing quarterback, blown coverages by the secondary, lack of coverage in the middle of the field, inconsistent tackling and an inability to get opportune stops are some of the main criticisms I have leveled at his defense over the past few years.  It is incredibly early to be making any long term proclamations, but the performance against the Seahawks was something to be proud of.

Mike Daniels and Nick Perry were attached to Russel Wilson at the hip.  The Seahawks' offensive line is widely considered a weak point of the team, but even if that is true then the defensive front did exactly what you would want them to do.  They were stout against the run, excepting one 30 yard run later in the game.  Eddie Lacy did nothing.  The cascade effect from there was apparent.  With pressure up front, the secondary had more margin for error.  They were up to the task in front of them.  The defense was literally and figuratively on the front foot the entire day, while Seattle was on the back foot.

The Packers offense left much to be desired, but it is hard to tell how much is due to their failings and how much is due to the performance of Seattle's defense, which looks to be the best it has been since their championship year.  They were moving the ball before Rodgers' early interception on a play that has been dissected much for the flags thrown during the return.  The first half closed with the offense having put no points on the board.  With the defense allowing only 3 points, they were doing the work of keeping the game in hand.

The offense, while not spectacular, was much improved in the second half.  Again though, they were aided by the defense forcing a turnover deep in Seattle's territory which led to a quick score.  Rodgers also found Jordy Nelson for a score on a free play, one of the several times he caught Seattle being slow on their defensive substitutions.  The throw was vintage Rodgers, hitting Jordy in stride over / around two defenders who had decent, but not great coverage on him.

The signs of a high ceiling for this team are evident.  One game is not nearly enough of a sample size to base much of a prediction on, but good signs in that first game are certainly better than the alternative.  If they repeat this defensive performance next week, then we could be in line for something special this season.  Time will tell.

Lacy is Gonna Wreck Fools

I'm an Eddie Lacy fan.  Since his rookie year, I've thought people have made too much of out of his weight.  He's never been a scat back, but his weight did not prevent him from being a force to be reckoned with in the NFL.

This last season, things did not go they way they were supposed to.  While still showing flashes of brilliance, Eddie had a disappointing year.  At one point, he was benched for violating team rules (curfew violation) and after the season, Mike McCarthy was openly concerned about his weight.

Eddie responded like a professional:

And that's not even a particularly good picture!

If this is a demonstration of the dedication we can expect from Eddie Lacy this season, I see two things happening.  First, with Marshawn Lynch's retirement, Eddie may be the heir apparent for the "Beast Mode" moniker.  Two, Aaron Rodgers will have a much easier job this year.  He won't have to throw as much and the defenses he does have to throw against will still be recovering from getting the snot knocked out of them by Eddie.  There are few things as entertaining for a Packers fan as watching Eddie trucking linebackers and defensive backs.

What happens if you add a focused and in-shape Eddie Lacy and a healthy Jordy Nelson to last year's team?  You have a real contender instead of the paper tiger that the Packers were exposed as last year.

2015 Season Review: Over and Underachieving at the Same Time

A season that started with the Packers being a strong Super Bowl pick ended with the Packers coughing up the division title to the HATED purple team in week 17 and a dramatic loss to the Cardinals in the Divisional Round of the playoffs.  In truth, it should have been clear to anybody paying attention during their six wins to start the season that, absent significant changes, this team was not championship caliber.  Unfortunately, it seemed like most people couldn't get past the 6-0 record to see that something was truly wrong.  In fact, many of the problems had been mounting for the past couple of years, but it came to a head this year.  While the team had every reason to be better than it was or its record indicated it was, given the performance on the field I'm actually shocked they finished as well as they did.

Offense

I'm going to light up the defense later because it's problems are so obvious and have been for a long time, but what really held the team back this year was the offense.  The redzone efficiency of the Packer's offense has been sub-par since the departure of Joe Philbin.  Consistent for several years has been the lack of depth on the offensive line.  It showed again this year, and it's not as though their first choice line was lighting it up to begin with.  To a large extent, Ted Thompson has not put together a line good enough to protect Aaron Rodgers.  That's inexcusable, especially with as long as they held on the a goon like Marshall Newhouse.

Injuries also decimated the Packers at receiver.  They struggled for much of the year, but Jared Abbrederis showed well when healthy.  In fact, there were times when he was the only one out there who looked like he gave a damn.  Jeff Janis and he were the entirety of the Packers receiving threat during the Cardinals game, especially after Cobb left with a bruised lung.  Cobb had easily his worst season as a pro, dropping easy passes left and right.  Like the rest of the offense, he just seemed out-of-sorts for the entire year.  I think he had the "yips."  He had issues without Jordy Nelson to draw attention, but he simply dropped passes that no professional, especially one of his proven caliber, should drop.  Even though it didn't count, the play he got injured on against Arizona is proof of how good he can be.  Jordy was a big loss.  Clearly they never recovered from it, but they should have done better.  I cringe at how bad they would have been if James Jones had not become available, though he disappeared far too often as well.

Richard Rodgers came on late in the year, at least receiving the ball.  He can't break a tackle to save his life and he's got zero quickness, but he made some plays.  I didn't get a good look at his blocking so I can't really say how he's progressed there, but he's started to show his potential. Quarless was a non-factor this year.  It's probably past time to reinforce the position.  Even at their best, neither guy is a game changer, Hail Mary plays excluded.

At times, Lacy and Starks both looked like all-pros.  At other times, they both looked like they should be glued to the end of the bench.  Lacy was out of shape.  Mike McCarthy said as much after the season.  Starks looked like the football was a greased watermelon at times.  There's talent in that backfield, but someone needs to put a boot in their behinds to work on their clear weaknesses.

Aaron Rodgers, the best quarterback in the league, the reigning MVP, looked pedestrian this year. His accuracy was, by his standards, terrible, especially on deep passes.  He was playing with new receivers in new positions and often running for his life, so I don't want to heap more than his fair share of the blame on him, but the results were not there and there wasn't much help from the coaching to make up for the injuries and talent weaknesses on the offensive side of the ball.

The Packer's offense was boring, predictable and devoid of creativity.  The problem was so bad that the opposing defense was basically able to shrink the field to within seven yards of the line of scrimmage, allowing the coverage and the pass rush to be incredibly aggressive.  They didn't help themselves by voluntarily shrunk the field even further by not using the middle of it.  

They couldn't push the ball down the field to take the top off of those tight defenses, so the short passing and running game suffered as well.  There are things that traditionally can be done to combat this issue, things that force the defense to be more reactive and give the offense more space.  Screen passes can slow down the pass rush, so can draw plays.  Bootleg and moving the pocket can mess with the pass rush and the coverage since all of the angle of attack are changed. Timing routs can also negate the pass rush.  The back shoulder and quick slants that were once a staple of the offense were all but gone this year.  But, when they mixed in these approaches, they were largely successful.

This team, once an offensive juggernaut, has devolved into a paper tiger.  As frustrated as I am with the defense, it's clear that the offense is what held the team back this year.  Their inability to put together a complete game cost them several wins, including the playoff loss to Arizona.  You can't fail to show up for the first 2-3 quarters and expect to be able to make up for it.  The only reason they did as well as they did is Aaron Rodgers and a lot of luck.  In fact, I would argue that the only difference between the first six games and the last ten is just the amount of luck the Packers had.

Defense

It seems pretty damned clear to me that the Packers defense was used to practicing against the Packers offense.  The offense didn't use the middle of the field and that must have convinced Dom Capers that there wasn't a need to guard the middle of the field.  Far too often, especially on important downs, the defense could be counted on to do exactly the same thing:  linebackers up at the line and secondary back deep.  This leave a massive gap between the front seven and the secondary.  Any offensive coordinator worth a damn saw this and exploited it.  The shallow cross over the middle just shredded the Packers defense this year.  It's how the Chargers marched down the field and came within one great individual play away of winning against the Packers this year. Contrary to what Troy Aikman said during the broadcast, Capers wasn't calling every different thing he could think of (or maybe he was), he called the same thing over and over and the Chargers exploited it the same way over and over.  Why?  Because they're not drooling idiots.  

Busted coverages and bad tackling continued to be calling cards of the defense.  Mix these things together and you have a defense that could not typically get the timely stop.  They offense didn't often give them enough of a break, so it's not an isolated issue, but they definitely did not do as much as they could have with what they had.  The defense has been stale for several years and their production is not as good as the talent says it should be.  The defense has been exploitable for some time.  Dom Capers should have been fired at least a year ago, probably two.  People can throw statistics at me all they want about yardage, points and turnovers.  This is a poorly coached defense.  Their talent has to overcome coaching deficiencies, much like the offense did for the past 2-3 years.  Rather than waiting for the wheels to fall off like happened with the offense this year, they need to act now and get someone who can coach this defense up.

Special Teams

The special teams was, for the most part, good this year.  Mason Crosby is Mike McCarthy's biggest "told ya' so" story.  He remains one of the best kickers in the league.  The fact that he recovered from his dismal 2012 season is a testament to both him and to McCarthy.

The coverage teams don't stick out in my memory as noteworthy, either good or bad.  The same is true of the kick return team.

The sore thumb of the special teams is Micah Hyde.  He's a good player, but his decisions-making on when to field and when not to field punts is terrible.  He put the Packers in several holes down the stretch letting balls drop that he shouldn't have or catching ones that he shouldn't have.  This isn't me second-guessing him in hindsight, this is an observation of him completely ignoring even the conventional wisdom of punt returning.  If you're in your end, stand on the 10.  If it goes past you, let it bounce.  If it's in front of you, field it.  It's that simple.  He couldn't/wouldn't and didn't. When he got the chance to return punts, he didn't do anything special enough to justify the negative impact his decision-making had on the field position battle.  

If he's really the best option for returning punts on the roster, that needs to change when training camp opens. I'm sure he's not the best option now, but it will be a good way for a rookie to make an impact early.  After this year, it would be shocking if there weren't a couple of new rookie receivers on the roster come August.

Conclusion

This year was a reckoning.  We're all familiar with the warranted criticism of Ted Thompson's unwillingness to utilize the free agent market to plug needs and put the team over the top.  This year, Packers fans were forced to come face to face with the other shortcomings of this team that have been building for the past couple of years.  These are shortcomings that were, until this year, more subtle and just as dangerous.  Some people remained in denial until near the end, but those people were willfully blind to the truth.  If the decision makers within the team allow themselves to be blind to these issues, the foundation of what should be a great team is going to rot away. Aaron Rodgers is in his prime, but he won't be there forever.  It would be a travesty to waste it. Even though they came within a play of making the NFC Championship game again this year, this team never looked like a real championship team to me.  That's a year wasted.

This One's Tough to Take

If you would have told me half way through the second game against the Vikings that the Packers would win the division and be in the Wild Card game against the 49ers until the end, I would have called you a liar, but I would have taken it.

Well, that's exactly what happened.  And I feel sick about it.  

Against all of my expectations, not only did the Packers win the division and make the playoffs, they made a game of it against the 49ers.  The defense did okay, largely making up for their usual blown coverages and lack of pressure in the pass game by making just enough plays to bend but not break.  The offense looked okay too, if you don't count the absolutely inept first quarter.  Despite moving the ball fairly well in the final three quarters, the Packers put up only two touchdowns, and that was fatal.

Holding the 49ers to 23 points is nothing to sneeze at when you consider how much talent they have.  Certainly, Packer fans would expect that with a healthy offense, 23 points would be beatable.  But, as has now become customary, Colin Kaepernick absolutely destroyed the Packers with his legs whenever the 49ers needed a play.  Dom Capers, once again, had no answer for Kap when it mattered most.

As has now become customary, Colin Kaepernick absolutely destroyed the Packers with his legs whenever the 49ers needed a play.  Dom Capers, once again, had no answer for Kap.  

In sum, the Packers played a disappointing game, but not an awful one.  In some ways, that makes figuring out the problem more difficult.  Fans of the Bears, Lions and Vikings should be ecstatic about what happened to the Packers today.  Had the Packers been dominated, it would have been easy to decisively make changes such as the clamored for firing of Dom Capers. 

The problem is that, with as good as this team played at times, there are holes all over the place, and they were all on display today.  There are legitimate questions about whether the issues are with the players on the field or with the men coaching them up.  The easy answer is both.

The offense stalled in the red zone, like it did for much of the year.  The defense gave up big plays and missed opportunities to take the ball away.  The pass rush was non-existent.  Pass protection was spotty.  The strained depth, especially on defense, was strained to the breaking point.

The task that Ted Thompson and Mike McCarthy face this off season is prioritizing and dealing with all of these holes, and that starts with a decision on the fate of Dom Capers.  I would tend to say that it's time for him to go, but I would be okay with giving him another year if he gutted his staff, specifically the secondary coaches.  Beyond that, the Packers need pass rushers, linebacker help, and defensive line help.  They need more offensive line help, though that may come with improved health over the off season (I feel like I've been saying that for 3 years).  

This off season promises to be one of significant changes for the Packers, and rightfully so.  The 49ers are really good, and they are young.  The Packers need to be prepared to deal with the 49ers and teams like them and the Seahawks if they're going to return to the Super Bowl.  Right now, they don't have the bodies or the brains on defense to deal with a team as physical as the 49ers, especially if they have a signal caller as dynamic as Kap.

Let's Talk Officials

To Packer fans, it's not secret that the NFL's officials are far from perfect.  Whether it's the infamous non-fumble that allowed the 49ers to knock the Packers out of the playoffs on January 3, 1999, or the more recent Fail Mary against the Seahawks, Packer fans are aware of the influence that a bad call can have on the outcome of a game.  That's not to say that the Packers are special in that regard.  The fact and problem is that they're not.

The officials are rightly maligned when they fail at their jobs.  The recent missed illegal formation that should have given the Chiefs the opportunity to retry a game winning field goal against the Chargers may have dramatically changed the AFC playoff field.  Football Zebras is a blog that does a fantastic job of keeping up with the happenings in NFL officiating, and this post does a good job of looking back at the 2013 season in particular, including the blown field goal call.  The post also highlights some of the better moments of the year.

While I'm first in line to blast officials for their many screw ups, the more I learn about the NFL officiating process from places like Football Zebras and NFL broadcasts, the more convinced I am that NFL officials are set up to fail.  The problems with officiating are less about bad individual officials and more about systemic problems that the NFL continues to fail to address.

Let's start with the obvious.  NFL officials are part time employees.  Many are retired or have regular jobs during the week such as working as attorneys.  Until the NFL has full time officials, they're not going to have crews that are dedicated to being the best officials they can be all week.  Though the NFL is largely unique in that teams play one game a week, it is the only major American professional sports league that employs part time officials.  That's a problem.

I mentioned that some NFL officials are practicing attorneys (Ed Hochuli and Clete Blakeman, according to their Wikipedia pages).  That may be somewhat of a good thing because you need to have a law degree to decipher some of the NFL's rules.  The NFL's rules are overcomplicated, be it the "tuck" rule or the "process of the catch" rule, technical and seldom-applied rules lead to inconsistent application.  Hits on quarterbacks and and receivers are additional problem areas that officials and defenders alike seem to have difficult times with, and rightly so.

But wait, replay helps, right?  Not so much.  Replay takes too long and it's being applied by the same people who made the original call, so that doesn't do a lot to aid consistency of rule application.  Additionally, most of the problem areas are not reviewable.  There's no reason why replay cannot be done more on the fly at a central location at the league office, similar to what the replay officials do on turnovers and scoring plays at the stadium.  If play needs to be stopped, it can be stopped, but expanded and centralized replay is overdue in the NFL.

We've heard over and over from the NFL, during Bounty-Gate, and the lockouts of both the players and officials that the NFL is so concerned with the "integrity of the game."  Integrity of the game  starts with letting the players decide the outcome of games, not the officials.  That means getting calls right, whether it's the opening kickoff of week one or the fourth quarter of the Super Bowl.

Aaron Rodgers Rumors

Photo from Packers.com

So the rumors are flying that Aaron Rodgers is gay.  They've gotten to the point where the star QB has addressed them directly.  He said on his radio show “I really, really like women. That’s all I can say about that.”  

So, the question is this:  "Is Aaron Rodgers gay?"  I happen to have the answer to that question.  The answer is an emphatic "who cares!"

The man has never made his personal life part of his public persona.  He's never made it anything that we've seen interfere with how he does his job.  More to the point, he's really good at his job.  I mean really good at his job of being the quarterback for the Green Bay Packers.  That should be all that matters. 

It's Time...

It is my distinct displeasure to inform Packer Nation that it is time... Time for the team to just officially declare that Aaron Rodgers will not play again this season.

While the Packers still have a slim playoff shot, it is abundantly clear that this team is not built for a deep playoff run.  The recent win over the Falcons, though a refreshing change of pace was not exactly a win over a quality team.  The Falcons may have started the year with Super Bowl aspirations, but they are not a good team this year.  For the first time in a long time, the defense did pretty much what it was supposed to, but wasn't overly impressive against an offense that is still missing its best player and hasn't found its pace all  year.

Bluntly put, the Lions may be poorly coached, but they're talented and potent.  The Bears look like they at least haven't missed a beat without Jay Cutler, and are doing well enough that there's talk that Cutler may not be back in Chicago.  With the wildcard out of any realistic reach, Green Bay will need to hop over both teams in the final three games in order to win the division and make the playoffs.  

By all rights, the Packers should have been eliminated weeks ago.  Luckily, the Lions and Bears have allowed the Packers to stay in the race, but that hope is false.  The weekly questions about Rodgers and his status is only stringing people along and it needs to stop.  The reports of Rodgers' playing status for Sunday is not encouraging.  If Rodgers is 100% ready to go this week, it's time to call it a season and focus on seeing what players are worth keeping around for next year.  

Rodgers is worth too much to risk when there isn't a legitimate chance at a championship.  The fact that that there were reports over the past couple fo weeks that the team hasn't even discussed the idea of shutting Rodgers down means that they're either not facing reality or, more likely, there's no discussion needed and the only debate internally is when to consider the season lost.  The last gasp may come this weekend.  Though, if Monday was any indication, a trip to Dallas may be just the thing to get the Packer's offense going.

Now that I think about it, there's a distinct possibility that this debate will start over again next week.