Wednesday, February 20, 2013

James Jones thinks the Packers Could have Three 1,000 Yard Receivers... and He's Right!

James Jones was able to focus his efforts into his best season as a pro last year by, in part, talking to himself.  Well, it appears he's got some things he wants to say to the rest of us.  From NFL.com:
"I think a 100-catch receiver is gone out of our offense just because Aaron (Rodgers) spreads the ball around so much. If anybody had a shot to get 100 catches, I'd probably say Randall because he's in the slot and he'll probably get a lot more targets.  I can see me, Jordy and Randall getting about 80 catches a piece. I can see us all having over 1,000 yards."  -James Jones
That's right, Mr. Jones sees the departure of veterans Donald Driver and Greg Jennings as opportunities for Nelson, Cobb and himself.  He thinks there will be enough opportunities for all three to be productive.  What he's really saying is that defenses can pick their poison.

If this is the type of thinking that propelled James Jones to the season he had last year, then I hope it's contagious.  Replacing the production of Greg Jennings and the leadership of Donald Driver won't be easy, but the new and matured James Jones seems like a guy at least capable of making an effort.

Tuesday, February 19, 2013

Is Ted Thompson "Anti-Badger?"

Indulge me for a moment.

American soccer fans, specifically fans of the US Men's National team are probably aware of Coach Jurgen Klinsmann advisory that players who want to break into the national team would do well to leave MLS and play in Europe.  This says that he doesn't have much respect for the players that the league produces.  One could argue that that Ted Thompson takes a similar viewpoint of the state's other football team.  Of course, this is pure speculation, conjecture and dot connecting, but let's have some fun with it.

According to the University of Wisconsin, there are 25 Badgers in the NFL as of the end of the 2012 season.  All but one of them, safety Jim Leonard (one of my personal favorite Badgers) entered the NFL during Ted Thompson's tenure as the GM in Green Bay.  There are a couple of players who were practically no-brainer top picks.  Joe Thomas and JJ Watt had no chance of falling to a position where Thompson would have drafted them.  They were dominant college players and have proven to be stand-out if not All-Pro professionals.  Had Thompson passed on these guys, I would be truly worried.  I want to talk about 5 guys who were in positions that the Packers needed and that they passed on or would not have had to move much to be able to draft.

It has been a couple of years since the Packers have had a solid offensive line.  The team has not truly replaced Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher (yes, a Badger, but he was a hold-over from before TT), and their interior line has been better but lacking the ability to handle any injuries.  In 2011, Thompson was clearly taking Derek Sherrod.  Gabe Carimi (T) went of the board to the Bears just a few picks before, but we know Thompson is not big on trading up for anybody, Badger or no, unless they're really special (like Clay Matthews). Given how Carimi has panned out for the Bears, it looks like Thomspon made the right call so far.

John Moffit (G) went in the third round, so Thompson could have drafted him in the first or second rounds.  It would be tough to argue for Moffitt going in the first round, but at the end of the second round would not have been a stretch.  However, Thompson turned that pick into Randall Cobb, so once again it is tough to argue that Thomspon was wrong there.

So, the 2011 draft doesn't point to an anti-Badger bias.  What about the 2012 draft?  The first round saw Kevin Zeitler (G) go off the board one pick before the Packers had their turn to select in the first round.  It would have been curious to see what Thompson would have done had Zeitler been on the board, but as good as Zeitler was in college and as well as he acquitted himself in his rookie season, he's not the special type of player that makes TT want to move in the draft.

Peter Konz (G/C) could have been had in round two.  With the Packers parting ways with Scott Wells, it would have been a logical place for Thomspon to draft the UW stand-out.  Instead, he passed and went with DT Jerel Worthy.  Admittedly, the defensive line was also in need of replenishment.  Maybe Thompson looked at the game tapes of the two going head-to-head in college and thought Worthy had the better showing.  Either way, it's tough to say that Thompson clearly made the wrong choice.  Good arguments could be made either way.  I would have gone with Konz, but that may be my pro-Badger bias talking.

The last player I want to bring up is one that I was kicking and screaming about at the time:  Russell Wilson.  "He's too short to play in the NFL" was the conventional wisdom.  Anybody who was part of that special season in Madison could tell you that Russell Wilson had what it takes.  The man played behind an NFL size offensive line.  If he could handle that and thrive, I had no doubt that he could handle the NFL if given a chance.  His size alone knocked him into the third round.  The Packers had just lost Matt Flynn and were in the market for a backup.  Maybe the second round was too soon for taking a backup quarterback, but the Packers had a need and he would have been a steal and then flipped later on for another player or pick.  The Packers Quarterback Factory would be back up and running.  Until then, Rodgers would have had the kind of backup that that the Packers need him to have if they're going to be able to weather an injury.  I think Thomspon missed an opportunity on that call, but given that the player he selected instead, Casey Heyward, nearly won defensive rookie of the year, Thompson's pick was definitely a good one.  I just think a Wilson selection would have been better.

Is there an anti-Badger bias?  Probably not.  So, what about this year?  The big Badger name out there is none other than NCAA touchdown king Montee Ball.  What do you know... the Packers need a running back.  Ball isn't projected to be a particularly high draft pick, likely somewhere in the second or third rounds.  With the Packers drafting near the end of of the first round, they could have anywhere from one to three shots at him.  If Ball is sitting on the board with the Packers on the clock in the second round, you can bet I'll crossing my fingers for Thompson to give him a shot.  If he's still there in the third, I'll probably be screaming at my TV.  If Thompson passes on him again any later than that, I will be at a loss for words.


Monday, February 18, 2013

The times... They are a'changin'

It's the off-season and it's already been an eventful one for the Green Bay Packers.  Donald Driver, the team's all-time leading receiver has decided to walk away from football rather than play for another team.  This comes after a year where the Packer great saw very little playing time.

Charles Woodson, the team's defensive leader was cut to clear salary cap room.  One of the best free agent signings of all time, Woodson's abilities have begun to decline.  Though he most certainly can still play, it is tough to justify his high price tag given the young talent that the Packers have in the secondary.

Decisions remain to be made on Jermichael Finnley and AJ Hawk, two players who have had their ups and downs while playing for the Green and Gold.  Both have shown they can be productive in the right circumstances, but there's a good possibility that one or both of them will not be back, at least not under their current contracts.

The running back position is in flux.  Cedric Benson is a free agent.  Alex Green was inconsistent.  James Starks can't stay healthy.  DuJuan Harris showed some flashes, but can he hold up through an entire season? That remains to be seen.

Both lines have been decimated by injuries, along with the linebacking corps on defense.  All three of those units should have some players coming back to compete, but it remains to be seen how Nick Perry, Desmond Bishop, Derek Sherrod and Jerel Worthy will come back from their injuries.

Greg Jennings has likely played his last down for the Packers.  As good of a player as he is, the Packers cannot afford to bring him back, given the contracts that they will need to do in the next 12 months.  That significant loss notwithstanding, the receiver position is poised to be a continued strength for the team.  If any team can afford to lose a great player like Greg Jennings (and I'm not saying anybody wants to), the Packers can handle it.

Some things aren't changing though.  Aaron Rodgers is one of, if not the best quarterback in the NFL.  With any protection, the man can pick nearly any defense apart, especially with the receivers he has.  But, the man needs to be paid.  He is paid significantly under his market value on the extension he signed shortly after he assumed the starter's role.  It was a good deal for the Packers, but  it's time to pay the man.  Priority two is extending Clay Matthews.  They are the rocks to build around.

One other thing that's not changing is that random fans are going to have plenty to say about the teams that they love.  Random fans like me are going to start blogs devoted to the teams they love.  I love the Green Bay Packers.  I take pride in that.  I also take pride in trying to be as objective in my analysis and recognizing my own biases and stepping out of my homer shoes.  That's what I want to bring to the conversation.  Maybe that's a change too.